Why is China so in debt?
Li Daokui has estimated that local Chinese authorities had by 2020 run up a much bigger tally of debt than previously realized, at some 90 trillion yuan ($12.6 trillion). Most of this debt came from building infrastructure, much of which is unlikely to generate revenues sufficient to pay off the obligations.
Cities and provinces across the country have accumulated a massive amount of hidden debt following years of unchecked borrowing and spending. The International Monetary Fund and Wall Street banks estimate that the total outstanding off-balance-sheet government debt is around $7 trillion to $11 trillion.
But other experts argue the risk of a hard landing is low. China has little overseas debt, and a high national savings rate. In addition, most of the debt is state owned – state-controlled banks loaned funds to state-controlled firms – giving the government the ability to manage the situation.
Second, China is now facing a deep and pervasive confidence problem that has taken a toll on consumption, private investment, and birthrates. Those issues could spread to other areas, including the financial sector. This confluence of pressures conjures up memories of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.
It's going to put it into bonds of other countries. It will have to buy other currencies in order to invest in those countries' bonds. So US interest rates will no doubt rise as the supply of US Treasury bonds suddenly increases and the dollar will fall as China moves a lot of money out of dollars.
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People's Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
China is one of the United States's largest creditors, owning about $859.4 billion in U.S. debt.
- As of Dec. ...
- U.S. national debt is categorized as intragovernmental debt and public debt. ...
- The remainder is public debt. ...
- As of Dec. ...
- Japan held $1.1 trillion in Treasury securities as of October 2023, beating out China as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.
Debt as a share of GDP has risen to about the same level as in the United States, while in dollar terms China's total debt ($47.5 trillion) is still markedly below that of the United States (close to $70 trillion). As for non-financial corporate debt, China's 28 percent share is the largest in the world.
Singapore is one of Asia's major financial centers. It is also one of the most prosperous countries on the planet. And all this has been achieved without taking on any meaningful public debt. In fact, very much like Norway, Singapore has more assets than debt.
Why is China not doing well?
Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group, agreed, saying: “The slowdown in China's economy is structural, caused by the end of an unprecedented expansion in credit and investment over the past decade.”
The United States is the undisputed heavyweight when it comes to the economies of the world. America's gross domestic product in 2022 was more than 40% greater than that of China, the world No.
Hundreds of big global companies such as Apple, Volkswagen and Burberry get a lot of their revenue from China's vast consumer market and will be hit by households spending less. The knock-on effects will then be felt by the thousands of suppliers and workers around the world who rely on these companies.
Russia holds US Treasury bonds worth about 170 billion USD. This gives Putin exactly zero leverage over the US government.
With a debt of $290.5 billion, Switzerland ranks as one of the top countries that owe the US money. Investors in Switzerland have also increased their holdings of US debt. The country's other main creditors include countries such as Germany and France.
One theory: “They have to sell these Treasurys to help support the yuan,” he said. Selling Treasurys is a fast way to whip up U.S. dollars, and China will sometimes use extra dollars to go out on the global market and buy up their own currency. That artificially pumps up its value.
1 Foreign governments hold a large portion of the public debt, while the rest is owned by U.S. banks and investors, the Federal Reserve, state and local governments, mutual funds, pensions funds, insurance companies, and holders of savings bonds.
U.S. debt offers the safest haven for Chinese forex reserves, which effectively means that China offers loans to the U.S. so that the U.S. can keep buying the goods China produces.
At the top is Japan, whose national debt has remained above 100% of its GDP for two decades, reaching 255% in 2023.
The public owes 74 percent of the current federal debt. Intragovernmental debt accounts for 26 percent or $5.9 trillion. The public includes foreign investors and foreign governments. These two groups account for 30 percent of the debt.
How much land does China own in the US map?
China owns roughly 384,000 acres of U.S. agricultural land, according to a 2021 report from the Department of Agriculture. Of that, 195,000 acres, worth almost $2 billion when purchased, are owned by 85 Chinese investors, which could be individuals, companies or the government.
The bottom line
Printing more money is a non-starter because it'd break our economy. “It would take care of the debt but at a price that's far too high to pay,” Snaith says.
Most include a combination of deep spending cuts and tax increases to bend the debt curve. Cutting spending. Most comprehensive proposals to rein in the debt include major cuts to spending on entitlement programs and defense.
Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt.
It ultimately comes down to the U.S. taxpayers. That means in order to pay it off, or at least make a larger dent in the debt, the federal government would have to raise taxes and cut spending.
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