How long was the longest bear market?
As of now, the longest bear market occurred between 2000 and 2002 and lasted 929 calendar days. Image source: Getty Images.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
The longest bear market lingered for three years, from 1946 to 1949. Taking the past 12 bear markets into consideration, the average length of a bear market is about 14 months. How bad has the average bear been? The shallowest bear market loss took place in 1990, when the S&P 500 lost around 20%.
One year and three months. The total length of time that the bear market of 2007 to 2009 lasted. The S&P 500 lost 51.9% of its value.
- The Crash of 1929, which eventually ushered in the Great Depression,
- The Oil Embargo of 1973, which was followed by a vicious bout of stagflation,
- The Tech Bubble crash and,
- The Financial Crisis following the (then) record high in October 2007.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
Bear markets are a normal part of investing. Bear markets have historically varied in length but stock markets have always recovered from them.
After 2000, the S&P 500 took more than four and a half years to recover to new all-time highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq took an incredible 15 years to fully recover from the post-bubble bear market.
The S&P 500 fell 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, ending the GFC bear market. Between the tech bubble bear market earlier in the decade and the GFC, the 2000s went down as one of the worst decades for stock investors ever. Even worse than the 1930s!
Watch for 20%: Market cycles are measured from peak to trough, so a stock index officially reaches bear territory when the closing price drops at least 20% from its most recent high (whereas a correction is a drop of 10%-19.9%). A new bull market begins when the closing price gains 20% from its low.
How long does it take to recover from a bear market?
As shown above, recovery times vary widely and depend on the economic environment. When bear markets are not accompanied by recession, recoveries from bear markets only took an average of 10 months to reach a new record high.
For workers and households, the picture was less rosy. Unemployment was at 5% at the end of 2007, reached a high of 10% in October 2009, and did not recover to 5% until 2015, nearly eight years after the beginning of the recession. Real median household income did not recover to pre-recession levels until 2016.
Wall Street Crash of 1929
Stock prices dropped first on the 24th, briefly rallied — and then went into free fall on October 28-29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 25% in those days in an event known as Black Tuesday. Ultimately, the market lost 85% of its value.
Of course, it's impossible to predict when the top and bottom of the market will be. It's likely that, if you invest in a bear market, you will at first sustain some losses that will test your nerve. Conversely, if you take profits as markets are rising, you will often see prices rise further after you have sold.
Selling Out
The trouble is, few investors can expect to reliably time the market. Many investors who sell during a downturn will miss out on the sharp rallies that usually mark the bear market's end, significantly lowering their long-term returns.
The words "bear market" strike fear into the hearts of many investors, but these deep market downturns are unavoidable. They also tend to be relatively short, especially compared with the duration of bull markets, when the market is rising in value. Bear markets can even provide good investment opportunities.
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
Stock | 2024 return through March 31 |
---|---|
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc. (ARQT) | 206.8% |
Janux Therapeutics Inc. (JANX) | 250.9% |
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) | 254.1% |
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) | 255.3% |
But things have been looking up, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.11%) has surged by more than 33% since late 2022. While it's unclear whether prices will continue soaring, many people are hopeful that we're in the early stages of a new bull market. If that's the case, 2024 could be a great year for the stock market.
Investing in a bear market
Investors can look forward to strong returns once the bear market ends. According to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute study, the average 12-month return after the end of a bear market is 43.4%.
What is the longest bull market in history?
Key Takeaways. The current bull market that started in March 2009 is the longest bull market in history. It's topped the bull market of the 1990s that lasted 113 months.
Stocks peak about six months (26 weeks) ahead of the start of the recession. Stocks bottom about a year after the recession starts. After bottoming, stocks take about 3.5 years to return to near their prior peak.
Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928
There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days.
The Dow Jones did not return to its peak close of September 3, 1929, for 25 years, until November 23, 1954.
As it turns out, the data says it couldn't be truer. Money is made in bull markets. But fortunes are made by those who buy the dip in bear markets. Here's a deeper look.
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