How long have we been in bear market?
Excluding the bear market that just ended June 2023, the last bear market occurred in March 2020 amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns that lead to a brief recession. The bear market lasted only 33 days.
Bear Market Period | Duration | Total S&P 500 Decline |
---|---|---|
March 2000 to October 2002 | 31 months | -49% |
October 2007 to March 2009 | 17 months | -56% |
February 2020 to March 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
January 2022 to October 2022 | 10 months | -25% |
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
- The Crash of 1929, which eventually ushered in the Great Depression,
- The Oil Embargo of 1973, which was followed by a vicious bout of stagflation,
- The Tech Bubble crash and,
- The Financial Crisis following the (then) record high in October 2007.
One thing to keep in mind during bear markets is that you aren't going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business for the long term, even if the share price goes down a little more after you buy. Build positions over time: This goes hand in hand with the previous tip.
According to Seeking Alpha — which analyzed every bear market since 1928 — the longest-ever bear market occurred in 1973-74, when it lasted 630 days, or about 21 months. The stock market shed about 48% during that period.
Third, many Wall Street analysts predict that the S&P 500 will jump in 2024, but with a lower return than last year. Sure, they're guessing, just as I am. However, they think that moderating inflation and the potential for interest rate cuts should be good for stocks.
Analysts project 11.5% earnings growth and 5.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in 2024. Fortunately, analysts see positive earnings and revenue growth for all eleven market sectors this year.
Stock | Expected Change in Stock Price* |
---|---|
Tesla Inc. (TSLA) | 61% |
Mastercard Inc. (MA) | 14.2% |
Salesforce Inc. (CRM) | 7.2% |
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) | 11.3% |
Should I pull my money out of the stock market?
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
The margin facility can be a powerful tool if you use it right. For instance, you could use it to acquire stocks that pay dividends in a bear market. Take advantage of call and put options. This is a great time to profit from call options.
The S&P 500 fell 57% from its October 2007 peak before bottoming on March 9, 2009, ending the GFC bear market. Between the tech bubble bear market earlier in the decade and the GFC, the 2000s went down as one of the worst decades for stock investors ever. Even worse than the 1930s!
Bull markets often follow bear markets. These are defined as an increase of 20% or more in stock prices. There have been many bull markets since 1930. While bull markets often last for years, a significant portion of the gains typically accrue during the early months of a stock market rally.
Selling Out
The trouble is, few investors can expect to reliably time the market. Many investors who sell during a downturn will miss out on the sharp rallies that usually mark the bear market's end, significantly lowering their long-term returns.
Bonds also are an attractive investment during shaky periods in the stock market because their prices often move in the opposite direction of stock prices. Bonds are an essential component of any portfolio, but adding additional high-quality, short-term bonds to your portfolio may help ease the pain of a bear market.
It defines a bear market as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 from its previous peak. It ends when the index reaches its low before then going on to set a new high. S&P uses closing prices for its calculations. Bull markets in both stocks and bonds are far more common than bear markets.
Bear markets are typically shorter in duration than bull markets, and markets eventually recover. If you're investing for long-term financial goals like retirement, a bear market can present opportunities to buy stocks at lower prices. Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio.
Few would dispute that the crash of 1929 was the worst in history. Not only did it produce the largest stock market decline; it also contributed to the Great Depression, an economic crisis that consumed virtually the entire decade of the 1930s.
How many bear markets have there been in the last 100 years?
Bear Markets In the U.S. Since 1928
There have been 28 bear markets since 1928. The average decline was 35.62%, and the average length of time was 289 days.
Excluding the bear market that just ended June 2023, the last bear market occurred in March 2020 amid COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns that lead to a brief recession.
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
Technology and growth stocks have outperformed in 2023, and analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth to rebound in 2024.
The S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months, partly fueled by the view the Fed could soon start cutting rates. The index has hit record highs this year, and is up about 4% so far for 2024 after rising 24% in 2023.
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